[FOMC성명 분석]"인플레보다 디플레 우려"

제로금리 당분간 유지, 유동성 공급 확대, 국채매입 준비 강조

미 연방준비제도이사회(FRB)는 28일(현지시간) 공개시장위원회(FOMC)를 개최, 기준금리인 연방기금 금리를 현행 0∼0.25%로 유지하기로 했다.

연준의 FOMC 성명은 특히 현재의 경제상황이 '예외적으로 낮은 금리수준을' '당분간' 유지할 필요가 있다(likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time)고 밝혀 당분간 '제로금리' 시대가 지속될 것임을 분명히 했다.

연준의 이같은 입장은 경기가 지속적으로 악화되고 있다는 진단에 따른 것이다.
지난달 FOMC 이후에도 가계와 기업들의 소비 감소로 산업생산 주택착공 고용상황이 급격히 악화됐다고 설명했다. 여기에 지금까지 미 경제를 지탱해오던 해외 수요도 심각하게 둔화됐다고 우려했다.

정부가 유동성을 공급하고 금융기관 지원에 나서면서 금융시장 상황은 다소 개선된 것으로 파악했다. 그러나 가계와 기업에 대한 신용 상황은 여전히 극히 경색돼 있다고 덧붙였다.

FOMC는 미 경제가 올 하반기에는 회복세를 보이기 시작할 것이라는 기존의 관점을 유지하면서도 여전히 경기하강 위험은 상당하다고 유보했다.(The Committee anticipates that a gradual recovery in economic activity will begin later this year, but the downside risks to that outlook are significant.)

인플레이션 압력보다는 디플레이션 우려를 이전보다 보다 명확히 했다.
에너지 및 상품가격 하락과 경기둔화 전망으로 인해 인플레이션 압력은 향후 수분기동안 낮은 상태를 유지할 것이라고 밝혔다.
오히려 장기적 경제성장과 물가안정을 위해 바람직한 수준 이하(below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term)로 인플레이션이 유지될 우려가 있다고 지적했다.

이에 따라 경제성장과 물가안정을 위해 공개시장조작은 물론 연준의 통화운용규모 확대를 수반하는 모든 수단을 동원할 것이라고 재차 강조했다.
이를 위해 현재 진행중인 정부보증 기관 채권 매입, 모기지 증권 매입을 더욱 확대하고 가계 및 중소기업을 돕기 위해 계획대로 TALF(기간자산 담보증권 대출)프로그램을 집행할 것이라고 밝혔다.


특히 연준은 "장기국채를 매입할 준비가 돼 있다(prepared to purchase longer-term Treasury securities)"고 밝혀 시장의 신용경색이 해소되지 않을 경우 국채매입 실행에 나설수 있음을 강조했다.





For immediate release
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.

Information received since the Committee met in December suggests that the economy has weakened further. Industrial production, housing starts, and employment have continued to decline steeply, as consumers and businesses have cut back spending. Furthermore, global demand appears to be slowing significantly. Conditions in some financial markets have improved, in part reflecting government efforts to provide liquidity and strengthen financial institutions; nevertheless, credit conditions for households and firms remain extremely tight. The Committee anticipates that a gradual recovery in economic activity will begin later this year, but the downside risks to that outlook are significant.

In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities in recent months and the prospects for considerable economic slack, the Committee expects that inflation pressures will remain subdued in coming quarters. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term.



The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability. The focus of the Committee's policy is to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that are likely to keep the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level. The Federal Reserve continues to purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand the quantity of such purchases and the duration of the purchase program as conditions warrant.

The Committee also is prepared to purchase longer-term Treasury securities if evolving circumstances indicate that such transactions would be particularly effective in improving conditions in private credit markets. The Federal Reserve will be implementing the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses. The Committee will continue to monitor carefully the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of evolving financial market developments and to assess whether expansions of or modifications to lending facilities would serve to further support credit markets and economic activity and help to preserve price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Dennis P. Lockhart; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to expand the monetary base at this time by purchasing U.S. Treasury securities rather than through targeted credit programs.