최근 실업률이 높아지는 등 경기회복세가 탄력을 받지 못하고 있다는 판단에 따른 것으로 보인다. 오바마 대통령과 공화당간의 합의된 감세연장안에 대한 의견은 실리지 않았다.
기준금리는 0~0.25%에서 만 2년째 동결됐다. 이날 연준은 또 초저금리를 장기간 유지한다는 약속도 되풀이 했다.
이날 FOMC 성명은 경기와 관련 "회복세가 지속되고 있으나 실업률을 낮추기는 역부족"이라고 평가했다.(economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment.)
최근 소비 회복이 가속되는 조짐이 있지만 경기회복의 큰 그림을 바꿀 정도는 아니라는 판단이다. 11월 성명은 경기와 관련 "생산과 고용의 회복세가 늦어지고 있다"(the pace of recovery in output and employment continues to be slow)고 표현했었다.
아울러 이번 성명에도 성장과 물가측면에서 경제가 연준이 원하는 수준으로 되돌아가는 과정이 "실망스러울 정도로 늦다(disappointingly slow)"는 표현도 되풀이 됐다.
부문별 경기판단에서도 11월 성명서 표현이 대부분 반복됐다. 가계소비는 완만한 회복을 지속하고 있으나 고율의 실업, 소득증가 부진, 가계자산 가치감소 등으로 속도를 내지 못하고 있다고 봤다. 기업 설비투자는 증가세가 유지됐으나 속도는 줄었다고 평가했다. 건설부문은 침체가 지속되고 있으며 기업주는 여전히 고용을 늘리기 주저하고 있다고 봤다.
인플레이션 기대는 안정돼 있지만 물가는 하향추세를 지속하고 있다고 우려했다.
이에 따라 연준은 경기에 회복력을 주기 위해 지난 11월 내린 국채매입 결정을 유지하겠다는 방침을 재확인했다. 성명은 "2011년 상반기말까지 월 750억달러어치의 장기국채를 매입할 것"이라고 밝혔다.("the Committee intends to purchase $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month.)
아울러 경제상황에 따라 국채매입 규모를 조절할 수 있다는 문구도 포함됐다. 이날 토마스 회니그 캔자스시티 연은 총재는 양적완화에 반대의사를 피력했다. 호니그 총재는 반대 사유로 "지나치게 느슨한 통화정책이 인플레 기대심리를 부추겨 경제안정을 훼손할 수 있다"는 점을 들었다.
FOMC 성명 전문
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment. Household spending is increasing at a moderate pace, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. The housing sector continues to be depressed. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, but measures of underlying inflation have continued to trend downward.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. Although the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, progress toward its objectives has been disappointingly slow.
To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities as announced in November. The Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee intends to purchase $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.
The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.
The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Sandra Pianalto; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.
Voting against the policy was Thomas M. Hoenig. In light of the improving economy, Mr. Hoenig was concerned that a continued high level of monetary accommodation would increase the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, would cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations that could destabilize the economy.
[저작권자 @머니투데이, 무단전재 및 재배포 금지]