피치, KT 신용등급은 'A'로 유지

"유선사업 이익감소 모바일이 보완할 것, 유동성도 안정적"

이 기사는 11월27일(17:22) 머니투데이가 만든 프로페셔널 정보 서비스 'thebell'에 출고된 기사입니다.

국제신용평가사 피치가 27일 KT의 장기 외화표시 채권 신용등급을 A로 유지하고 등급 전망도 여전히 '안정적(Stable)'이라고 발표했다.

KT는 최근 피치의 등급 발표를 앞두고 "혹시 우리도 당하는 거 아닐까" 하는 막연한 불안감에 시달렸다. S&P나 무디스와 달리 우리나라 국가 신용등급과 주요 은행 신용등급에 대한 전망을 '부정적'으로 바꾼 피치였기 때문이다.

피치는 지난해 7월2일 KT의 장기외화표시채권 등급을 'A-'에서 'A'로 상향 조정했다. KT의 등급을 원위치하거나 등급전망을 '부정적'으로 달 가능성은 높지 않았다.

그럼에도 불구하고 KT가 걱정을 떨칠 수 없었던 건 금융시장이 워낙 불안하고 피치의 최근 행보가 다른 평가사에 비해 강경하게 느껴졌기 때문이다.

피치는 신용등급과 등급전망을 유지한 배경을 설명하면서 "KT가 다각화된 통신 운영업체로서 유선 및 광대역 산업을 선도하고 있는 점을 반영했다"고 밝혔다. 자회사 KTF를 통한 국내에서 두 번째 큰 모바일 서비스 운영 업체라는 점도 긍정적으로 작용했다.

피치는 KT의 높은 시장 점유율과 브랜드 위상으로 볼 때 신규투자와 배당에 따른 현금유출에도 불구하고 지속적인 이익창출이 가능할 것이라고 전망했다. 또 은행으로부터 차입할 수 있는 크레딧라인이 유효해 유동성 상황이 안정적이라고 덧붙였다.

피치 아·태지역 통신분야 담당인 김종완 디렉터는 "전통적인 유선 시장과 LM(Land to Mobile: 유선전화에서 휴대전화로 걸 때의 통화)이 하향 추세를 보이고 매출 감소가 우려된다"면서도 "올해 KT의 매출이 증가하거나 적어도 작년 수준은 유지할 것으로 기대된다"고 말했다.

또 유선사업에서의 이익감소를 올해 시작한 인터넷 프로토콜 텔레비전(Internet Protocol Television) 서비스 등 모바일 부문에서 보완해 줄 것으로 분석했다.

다음은 피치의 영문 보도자료 전문이다

Fitch Affirms KT Corporation's Ratings; Outlook Stable

Fitch Ratings-Seoul/Singapore-27 November 2008: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed KT Corporation's (KT) Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured notes rating at 'A'. The Outlook is Stable.

The ratings reflect KT's position as a fully-diversified telecommunications operator with leading market positions in the fixed-line and broadband businesses. The company is also well-entrenched as Korea's second-largest mobile service operator, through its subsidiary KT Freetel (KTF), and its own mobile resale service. Benefiting from its dominant position and strong brand name, KT continues to generate robust free cash flow after capex and dividends. The company's liquidity position is also sound, supported by a substantial cash balance and available bank credit lines, as well as evenly spread debt maturities.

"Although KT's dominant market position remains firmly entrenched, the declining trend of traditional fixed-line voice and Land to Mobile (LM) interconnection revenues are concerns for the company at this juncture," said Jongwan Kim, Associate Director in the agency's Asia Pacific Telecom, Media and Technology team. "Nevertheless, Fitch believes that KT's consolidated revenue can still grow, or at least match FY07's level in FY08 and beyond. Along with the uptrend in mobile service revenue, the company's newly launched Internet Protocol Television (IPTV) service is likely to enhance its broadband subscriber base and increase its internet application revenue, thereby partially offsetting the ongoing decline of its traditional fixed-line voice revenue," added Mr. Kim.

Fitch anticipates that the Korean mobile industry's H108 record level of marketing expenses is unlikely to continue, following the introduction of obligatory subscription periods of up to two years in April 2008, for all subsidised handset price offers. Consequently, churn rates and marketing expenses should fall and help both KTF and KT (on a consolidated basis) improve their margins. Moreover, the agency believes that consolidated capex is likely to fall and free cash flow (FCF) increase in FY09, since KT's Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH) metropolitan area network investment roll-out and KTF's mobile HSDPA network roll-out have largely been completed this year.

The Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's expectation that KT will sustain its strong business and financial profile over the medium-term, underpinned by its healthy operating performance, sound cash generation and abundant liquidity. However, the agency notes that the ratings will come under downward pressure should the operating environment deteriorate sharply and its consolidated EBITDAR margin fall below 23% (versus Fitch's FY08 estimate of 25%), its consolidated net debt/EBITDAR leverage ratio rises above 1.5x (versus Fitch's FY08 estimate of 1.2x), or if the outlook for KT's 2-year forward FCF generation turns negative. Furthermore, in light of the recent resignation of KT's CEO over alleged vendor rebate activities, and the delay in the appointment of a new CEO, another potential negative ratings trigger would be any politically driven changes to key management and business plans, which in turn are likely to negatively impact KT's margins and level of FCF generation going forward..

KT was fully privatised in 2002 and is currently listed on the Korean and New York exchanges. As of end-June 2008, KT dominates the fixed-line segment with a 90.1% market share, while its mobile subscriber market share has been relatively stable at about 31.5%. As at end-2007, KT owned 52.19% of KTF.